ETFs & Funds Confirmed First seen 2026-10-05 11:53 UTC

Eric Balchunas: About 50% of bond ETFs post negative 1yr returns

Eric Balchunas reports that about half of bond ETFs are posting negative one-year returns, though far from 2022 Fed hike levels, and that ETF arbitrage bands have stayed tight with no premium/discount issues despite the shift and higher volume.

Why “Confirmed”

Backed by on-chain or flow data: Eric Balchunas

1 independent source group across 1 post · evidence score 80/100. How labels work

What the sources claim

About 50% of bond ETFs are now posting negative 1-year returns.

“About 50% of bond ETFs are now posting negative 1yr returns.”
Eric Balchunas
The move up in negative bond ETF returns is dramatic but nowhere near 2022 Fed hike days.

“Nowhere near 2022 Fed hike days but the move up is pretty dramatic.”
Eric Balchunas
The negative returns are nominal, and real returns are much worse.

“And this is nominal return, obv real returns much worse.”
Eric Balchunas
Despite the abrupt shift in bonds and an uptick in volume, bond ETFs' arbitrage bands have been tight with no premium/discount issues.

“the ETFs' arb bands have been tight, no prem/disc issues, they handling extra stress fine”
Eric Balchunas

Sources

Eric Balchunas onchain 2026-10-05 11:53 UTC
About 50% of bond ETFs are now posting negative 1yr returns. Nowhere near 2022 Fed hike days but the move up is pretty dramatic. And this is nominal return, obv real returns much worse. All that said, despite the abrupt shift in bonds, and uptick in volume, the ETFs' arb bands have been tight, no…

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Summary and claims extracted by deepseek/deepseek-flash with prompt analyze-story@3 on 2026-10-05 12:00 UTC. Labels are computed from the sources, not by the model.