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TRX Backtest finds BTC-backed loans liquidated even at 20% starting LTV
A Reddit r/Bitcoin poster replayed a 12-month BTC-backed loan on hourly BTC prices starting every day since 1 Jan 2014, with 50% starting LTV, a 70% margin call with 48 hours to top up and liquidation at 80%. The post reports that 41 of 100 start days ended with the coins sold by the lender, and that at 20% starting LTV 4 of 100 one-year loans were still liquidated. It also states that 56 of 100 margin calls came at night or on a weekend (Central European Time), and that raising the liquidation LTV to 90% or allowing 72 hours to top up changed almost nothing.
Why “Rumor”
- Only community or trader posts: r/Bitcoin
0 independent source groups across 1 post · evidence score 9/100. How labels work
Market around the story
| Asset | Price at first report | 6h before | 1h before | 1h after | 6h after | 1h move vs normal | 24h volume vs median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $80,473 | +1.0% | +0.26% | +0.10% | +0.44% | 0.3σ | 0.9× |
Returns are measured from the moment the story first appeared. “vs normal” compares the move with the asset's typical hourly move over the previous 30 days.
What the sources claim
-
The poster's replay found that 41 of 100 start days ended with the coins sold by the lender. BTC
“41 of 100 start days ended with the coins sold by the lender”
r/Bitcoin -
At 20% starting LTV, 4 of 100 one-year loans were still liquidated in the replay. BTC
“At 20% starting LTV, 4 of 100 one-year loans were still liquidated”
r/Bitcoin -
No LTV tested survived every start day. BTC
“No LTV I tested survived every start day.”
r/Bitcoin -
56 of 100 margin calls came at night or on a weekend in Central European Time. BTC
“56 of 100 margin calls came at night or on a weekend (Central European Time)”
r/Bitcoin -
Raising the liquidation LTV from 80% to 90% or allowing 72 hours to top up instead of 48 changed almost nothing. BTC
“Raising the liquidation LTV from 80% to 90%, or getting 72 hours to top up instead of 48, changed almost nothing.”
r/Bitcoin
Sources
- I replayed a BTC-backed loan on every day since 2014. Even at 20% LTV, some got liquidated → bitcoinloancheck.com
More on BTC
Summary and claims extracted by AI with prompt analyze-story@5 on 2026-10-27 20:00 UTC. Labels are computed from the sources, not by the model.