J.P. Morgan Asset Management has projected that bitcoin will return 10% annually over the next decade, according to CoinDesk, which first reported the forecast on 20 October 2026. CoinDesk said the projection would beat stocks, bonds and gold over that period. The story is labelled Confirmed, with CoinDesk, The Block, Decrypt and Cointelegraph among the outlets backing it. [1]

CoinDesk reported that the forecast marks the first time JPMorgan has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research. Cointelegraph said JPMorgan included bitcoin in its long-term capital market outlook for the first time. Michael Saylor, citing the report directly, said the bitcoin analysis, assumptions and return comparison appear on pages 46-47 of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. [2] [5] [6]

Decrypt reported that the 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions project a 10% annual return for bitcoin over 10 to 15 years. The Block reported the same 10% annual return figure and said the firm flags 55% volatility as a barrier to portfolio adoption. Cointelegraph reported that JPMorgan warned that volatility and unstable correlations limit bitcoin's role in investment portfolios. [3] [4] [5]

Despite the forecast, Decrypt reported that the firm is not adding bitcoin to its main portfolio models. The claims describe the volatility and correlation concerns as barriers to wider portfolio adoption rather than as a change to the firm's allocation stance. [3] [4] [5]

The material does not state any further response from JPMorgan beyond the cited report and coverage, and it gives no figures beyond the 10% annual return, the 10 to 15 year horizon and the 55% volatility. No outcome of the forecast is stated, and nothing in the claims indicates a change to the firm's main portfolio models beyond what Decrypt reported. [3] [4]